Discount rate

Insurance company profit and the illiquidity premium

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The profit of insurance companies that report under IFRS is affected by three rates of return – the liability pricing rate, the return from investments, and the IFRS 17 discount rate. The first two largely determine the magnitude of aggregate profit; the last mainly affects the timing of profit recognition and its classification as a service result or net financial result.

We use an interactive model to explain how interest rates determine the reported results of insurance companies. The illiquidity component of the IFRS 17 discount rate is subjective, likely to vary by company, and plays a key role in how insurance companies are valued.

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Valuing sustainability risks and net-zero commitments

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Investors are paying increased attention to risks and opportunities arising from sustainability related issues, particularly the effects of climate change and related ‘net-zero’ commitments made by many companies. Some sustainability risks directly affect financial statements, but you need to look further when considering inputs for equity valuation.

Risk affects different aspects of equity valuation. It is well known that risk factors affect the discount rate, but the impact on other valuation inputs may get less attention. We explain how sustainability risks and opportunities should be included in your analysis.

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Equity beta, asset beta and financial leverage

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It can be observed that higher financial leverage increases equity beta. However, the relationship between the unleveraged asset or enterprise beta (the beta of the underlying operating business), and leveraged equity beta that is commonly applied in practice, is incomplete.

We explain the relevance of asset betas in equity valuation and why it is important to analyse the beta of debt finance and the value, and riskiness, of the debt interest tax shield when delevering and relevering equity beta.

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Valuing the debt interest tax shield

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The fact that the cost of debt finance is tax deductible, whereas the cost of equity is not, seems to give a structural advantage to debt finance. The value (if any) of this ‘tax shield’ is either an explicit or more likely implicit component of any equity valuation.

The most commonly quoted calculation of the value of the debt interest tax shield understates value by ignoring growth but, potentially, overstates value by ignoring the effect of personal taxes. We explain how to incorporate these often-ignored factors in your analysis.

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A pension accounting asset may be an economic liability

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Pension accounting can produce some odd results, such as companies that report a pension surplus but which still make ‘deficit reduction’ cash contributions. This illustrates an underlying problem in financial reporting where pension assets and liabilities may not reflect the true economic position of the sponsoring company.

We think the increasing closure of defined benefit schemes to new accrual, and the growing trend to de-risk, including the use of pension buy-ins and buy-outs, makes the flaws in pension accounting increasingly obvious. We explain the problem and what amount you should include instead in an equity valuation.

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Multi-employer pensions: Liability missing, expense unhelpful

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Defined benefit pension liabilities arising from participation in multi-employer plans may not be recognised on the balance sheet. Under IFRS, companies can avoid recognition by simply asserting that “information is not available”. Disclosures in the footnotes help, but these may be measured on an ‘actuarial’ basis which is not relevant for investors.

We use retailer Ahold-Delhaize to illustrate the challenge for investors. It participates in several US multi-employer schemes and discloses an unrecognised actuarial liability of €1.1bn as per year end 2018. We estimate the more relevant IAS 19 liability, which we think should be recognised on-balance sheet, to be €2.2bn.

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Beware the IFRS 16 inflation headwind

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The capitalised lease liability of an inflation-linked lease does not include expected inflation. This results in a lower liability and lower initial expense compared with an equivalent lease with no inflation link. The IFRS 16 figures are updated as the inflation uplift occurs, but these catch-up adjustments create a profit ‘headwind’.

We estimate that Tesco’s inflation-linked leases result in a pre-tax profit headwind of about 2.2 percentage points of growth.  If inflation were included in the measurement of the lease liability instead, we estimate it would increase from the reported £10.3bn to approximately £15.2bn.

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When investors need to restate liabilities – EDF

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In measuring its €40bn French nuclear decommissioning liability, EDF applies a 10-year historical ‘sliding average’ discount rate to a current estimate of cash flows. In our view, this leads to an out of date (and at present understated) liability that you should not use in your analysis, even though the approach is deemed to comply with IFRS.

Smoothing out the effects of discount rate changes may reduce apparent volatility, but it does not help investors. Balance sheets should include realistic and fully up to date estimates of the present value of decommissioning and other similar obligations.

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Pension liabilities: Not so ‘prudent’ actuarial values

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The valuation of pension obligations can be an important component in determining the value of an equity investment. But should you include in your analysis the pension surplus or deficit based on the accounting liability or, as some argue, the lower actuarial ‘funding’ valuation?

It is all about the discount rate. The problem is that there are very different opinions about the appropriate rate for pension obligations and what measurement approach is most relevant for investors. We examine a view expressed by many, including BAE Systems.

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