Fair value

No insight for investors from equity accounting

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The underlying rationale and conceptual basis for the equity method of accounting for investments in associates is unclear. Equity accounting can be regarded as either the cost-based measurement of an investment or as a quasi (one-line) form of consolidation – but neither is particularly helpful for investors.

We explain the limitations of the equity method and advocate measuring all investments in associates at fair value, consistent with other minority equity holdings. This results in a more relevant basis for investors to include investments in associates in their analysis and valuation.  

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Expected credit losses: Beware the day 2 effect

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Following the 2008 financial crisis, loan loss provisioning was changed to reflect ‘expected’ losses rather than ‘incurred’ losses. This made the impairment reserves of banks more responsive to changes in credit quality, but it also introduced a distorting day 2 effect.

Under US GAAP most expected loan losses are charged to profit up front. This ‘prudent’ approach may be liked by banking regulators, but it can produce performance metrics that are confusing for investors. The distortion is greatest for growing loan portfolios, particularly following acquisitions, as illustrated by the Citizens Bank purchase of Silicon Valley Bank.   

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Fair values and interest rate risk – Silicon Valley Bank

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Losses caused by the rise in interest rates in 2022, coupled with inadequate interest rate risk management, appear to be the trigger for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. However, most of the losses on its fixed rate assets were not recognised in either the balance sheet or in profit and loss.

We discuss why investors may have thought the bank was better hedged against interest rate risk than turned out to be the case, and show how 2022 profit would have been very different when measured on a full fair value basis – we estimate a pre-tax loss of $14.4bn rather than a US GAAP reported profit of $2.2bn.

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The diluted EPS calculation is 50 years out of date

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It will soon be the 50th anniversary of the publication of the Black-Scholes model for option valuation. The fair value of options has since been incorporated into several aspects of financial reporting. However, in the case of diluted earnings per share, the accounting still pre-dates Black-Scholes.

The treasury stock method for calculating diluted earnings per share only considers the intrinsic value of written equity options, such as warrants and employee stock options. We explain why this is a problem and the further reasons why the full economic value dilution resulting from these securities is not reflected in financial statements.

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Associate impairments may not reflect underlying economics

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Assets measured at cost are subject to impairment testing and potential write-down if there has been a decline in value. However, unclear impairment indicators, subjective measurement and the ability to use so-called value-in-use may mean that accounting impairments do not equal the change in economic value. 

We discuss the impairment process for investments in associated companies that are subject to equity accounting. In the case of French media company Vivendi’s investment in Telecom Italia, a cumulative impairment loss of €1,974m has been recognised since 2015. However, the 2021 balance sheet value still exceeded the market value of the investment by €812m.

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Enterprise to equity bridge – more fair value required

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A largely cost-based measurement approach in financial reporting generally provides sufficient information about operating ‘flows’ to enable investors to apply enterprise value based DCF (or DCF proxy) valuation models. However, fair values are crucial for the ‘bridge’ from enterprise to equity value.

Fair values are available for many, but not all, of the assets, liabilities and equity claims that should be included in the enterprise to equity bridge. We explain the limitations of current financial reporting and where you may need to do further analysis.

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Bitcoin: The financial reporting challenge for investors

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Whether you view Bitcoin as a modern-day tulip bulb mania bubble, that will inevitably burst, or an unstoppable development in finance, one thing is certain, companies are increasingly purchasing this asset. But how do Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies affect reported financial position and performance metrics?

There are no accounting rules dedicated to cryptocurrencies. Under current US GAAP and, usually under IFRS, intangible asset accounting is applied.  We use the reporting by MicroStrategy to illustrate why this does not provide the right information for investors and explain how you should include cryptocurrency assets in your analysis.

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Most likely profit may not be the most relevant profit

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Analyst forecasts may not take into account the distribution, particularly the skewness, of potential outcomes. A forecast of the most likely profit can significantly differ from the more relevant probability weighted expected value.

Whether a forecast is a mean or a mode is also important in financial reporting. Most IFRS standards, including IFRS 9 regarding loan impairments, require a probability weighted expected value; however, this is not universal. In some cases, such as IAS 37 regarding provisions, the requirements are unclear.

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Allocating value: An option-based approach

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You might assume that a change in enterprise value completely accrues to equity investors; however, this is often not the case. Other claims, such as debt or equity warrants, also change in value as enterprise value changes. Understanding this effect can be important when analysing many companies, especially those in financial distress.

Option-like characteristics of debt and equity claims drive the allocation of changes in enterprise value between debt and equity investors. We apply an interactive model to analyse recent changes in the enterprise value of Air France–KLM.

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Ignore this ‘recycled’ profit – Ping An

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There is a particular gain or loss in the income statement of many companies that, in our view, is irrelevant to investors. Fortunately, it is gradually disappearing from most IFRS financial statements due to the introduction of IFRS 9. However, if you invest in insurance companies you might not be so lucky.

Chinese insurer Ping An’s pre-2018 results were significantly impacted. But no longer – the company is one of the few IFRS reporters in the global insurance sector where investors now benefit from the elimination of this ‘irrelevant’ component of profit & loss.

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Investors need fair value, not fake value

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Equity investments currently reported at fair value could be measured at cost or some other ‘fake value’ in EU companies’ financial statements, depending on the outcome of a European Commission consultation.

There seems to be a never-ending debate in Europe about fair value measurement, particularly regarding equity investments. In our view any move to change the current financial reporting requirements would be detrimental for users of financial statements.

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Enterprise value – calculation and mis-calculation

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Valuation methods based on enterprise value have become the benchmark in equity valuation. Most of you will have analysed equity investments using valuation multiples based on a market enterprise value or have applied absolute valuation methods to derive a target enterprise value.

In simplistic terms enterprise value is market capitalisation plus net debt; but is that good enough? In many situations we think not.  We review the key building blocks of enterprise value to assist you in deriving relevant valuation metrics.

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