Stock-compensation

Non-cash transactions: Filling a free cash flow gap

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The IASB is developing proposals to improve disclosure of non-cash investing and financing transactions. A single tabular note would show these transactions alongside the equivalent cash flows reported in the cash flow statement.

We support the proposals. Non-cash transactions are, in effect, pairs of offsetting cash flows, and omitting them can materially distort free cash flow. The proposed disclosure would give investors the data needed to make adjustments we have long advocated, although the need for careful analysis, and potentially further adjustment, remains.

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Stock-based compensation: The cash flow question

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How equity-settled stock-based compensation should be reflected in free cash flow analysis remains the subject of ongoing debate. There are two distinct questions: whether an effective cash cost exists when no shares are repurchased to offset dilution, and whether that cost should be measured at grant date or vesting date.

Both questions have direct implications for free cash flow, DCF valuation and comparisons between companies with different repurchase policies. We have previously argued that an effective operating cash outflow should be recognised at grant date. In this article we address the arguments raised against that view.

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AI Hyperscalers – Capital expenditure and free cash flow

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The rapid expansion of AI related infrastructure by the big-tech hyperscalers, and the effect this capital expenditure has on free cash flow, has been a recent focus for equity markets. But does the capital expenditure reported in financial statements provide a complete picture?

We explain how metrics commonly used by investors understate capital expenditure and overstate free cash flow. Only by ensuring that the effects of leasing and other ‘effective’ flows are fully reflected in free cash flow will this important measure be relevant for equity valuation.

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Equity analysis when accounting and economics diverge

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Analysis becomes more difficult for investors if financial statements fail to faithfully represent the underlying economics of a business. Sometimes this reflects the limitations of accounting; however, sometimes the accounting is simply misleading – for example, US GAAP accounting for loan losses.

The FASB has recently issued an amendment to US GAAP to correct an anomaly where an accounting loss is recognised when loans are acquired, even though no economic loss has occurred. We explain why accounting and economic reality can diverge, and how the US GAAP amendment will help investors.

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Stock-based compensation: Transparency, timing and EPS

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Stock-based compensation can be difficult. Two approaches to measurement, valuation uncertainty, frequent adjustments for changes in estimates (including sometimes the stock price), and a dilutive effect in addition to an expense, all contribute this being a topic many investors try their best to avoid.

Investors are not helped by inadequate stock-based compensation disclosures. Some companies go further than required by accounting standards, such as Swiss bank UBS, whose helpful additional analysis gives more transparency. However, this analysis raises interesting questions about the timing of the expense and the impact on diluted EPS.

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Football player transfers highlight wider reporting issues

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In many transactions the amount payable may not be not known until sometime after the related asset, liability, income or expense is recognised in financial statements. In some cases, the accounting for this ‘variable consideration’ is clearly specified by IFRS. However, in others, including the purchase of fixed assets, companies may adopt different approaches.

Intangible assets arising from football player transfers are a good example of where companies can apply different accounting policies for variable consideration. We use the financial statements of Manchester United to explain the challenges for investors.

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Effective tax rates and stock-based compensation

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Stock-based compensation can have a significant impact on the effective tax rate. For US companies the effect is driven to a large extent by changes in the stock price. In 2021 this reduced the effective tax rate for many companies; however, in 2022 you could well see the reverse.

We use Netflix to explain the effect of stock-based compensation on cash taxes and deferred tax adjustments. The accounting is complex and made even more challenging for investors by differences between IFRS and US GAAP. Unfortunately, neither US GAAP nor IFRS financial statements may fully reflect the underlying economics.

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Non-GAAP is more than earnings before bad stuff

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Non-GAAP measures can be useful for investors, but they are also controversial. Some argue that certain non-GAAP adjustments are unacceptable and should not be permitted. This recently happened to US company MicroStrategy, where the SEC required it to amend the presentation of cryptocurrency gains and losses.

We do not agree with the SEC approach and believe MicroStrategy gives valid reasons for its cryptocurrency non-GAAP adjustment. We have less sympathy with other aspects of the company’s non-GAAP earnings calculation. However, we believe that the disaggregation that results from all non-GAAP disclosures generally benefits investors.

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Disaggregation is key to understanding performance

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Limited disaggregation of income and expense items with different characteristics impairs investors’ ability to assess and forecast performance. Recent proposals by the IASB for a new disaggregation principle and related disclosures of ‘unusual’ items will help. However, in our view, they do not go far enough.

The IASB also proposes to include management alternative performance measures (non-GAAP or non-IFRS) within audited financial statements. We welcome this. Additional subtotals can be helpful if they are clearly described and what is omitted is clearly identified. What would also help is to ban the use of labels such as ‘underlying’, ‘core’ and ‘recurring’.

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Forecasting ‘sticky’ stock-based compensation

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Stock-based compensation grants to employees in 2020 are likely to be affected by the changes to share prices and reduction in profitability currently being experienced by many companies. However, the impact on the related expense and on reported profit may not be what you might expect.

For most companies, stock-based compensation is a ‘sticky’ expense that is only indirectly or partially affected by current period changes. Limited disclosure in financial statements makes forecasting this expense a challenge. You should focus on the value of new grants, the vesting period and the effect of potential changes to assumptions. Our interactive model will help.

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In search of free cash flow – Amazon

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Amazon provides investors with three alternative calculations of a free cash flow metric. For 2018 these range from $8.4bn to $19.4bn. In contrast our preferred approach gives a negative free cash flow of $3.4bn. What explains these material differences?

The disclosures by Amazon about its free cash flow measures are good and the calculations go further than many other companies. However, in our view important components are missing. We explain our additional adjustments in respect of leased assets and stock-based compensation.

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