Debt-like customer advances and DCF valuation

Oracle Corporation says it will use customer advance payments to enhance cash flow and mitigate the amount of debt required to finance its AI infrastructure investment. We think investors should consider whether this, and other components of net working capital, are in-substance debt financing and adjust their analysis accordingly.

The standard approach of treating working capital as operating assets and liabilities for DCF valuation may not always be the best. In an interactive model, we demonstrate how receivables and payables (and similar working capital items) can be treated as financing items in an enterprise free cash flow DCF valuation.

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Cash is king – except when analysing performance

We often see investors using cash flow metrics, particularly cash from operations, as a measure of performance. Cash flow may even be preferred to profit because it is supposedly more reliable and less subject to management judgement and potential manipulation … “cash is a fact, but profit is an opinion”.

We explain why cash flow may not provide the insights into performance that some investors expect, and how cash flow can often be managed even more freely than profit. Cash flow is nevertheless an important component of equity analysis and ‘following the cash’ is vital to understanding a business.

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